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The 'Brexit' Referendum and the egg on my face

29/6/2016

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 Yes, I got the referendum result wrong. I predicted that the thought of a sharp decline in the pound just before the summer holidays would most likely swing it for the Remain side. Of course, I could simply have deleted my previous blog entry and any newcomers would never know I had egg on my face. However, if any blog is to be worth reading it must record humiliations alongside triumphs. 
  Judging from the reports of people regretting their Leave vote now that they have witnessed the predicted sharp decline in the pound and the near collapse of the stock markets, it seems that my mistake was to overestimate the intelligence of some of the Leave voters. 'We didn't know this would happen' some are reported to have complained. They were told, of course, repeatedly, but they chose to believe Batty Boris and Nigel the snake oil salesman instead. There are also some who have said that they were so convinced the Remain side would win anyway that they decided to use their vote as a protest even though they did not actually support the Leave side. A few surveys have suggested the number of regretful Leave voters could range from 4% to 40%. The higher figure is implausible, but even the lower one would have been enough to swing it the other way. 
  Dafter still are the reasons some people gave as to why they used their referendum vote as a 'protest' about other issues, real or imagined. 'This is the first time we've had a say about anything,' some asserted. But hang on a minute, we had a general election last year that had a lower turnout than the referendum, and in many of those areas that voted Leave there is usually a turnout in local elections of around 30% or less. They had a say then but most of them chose not to use it.​
  It just goes to show the dangers of voting (or not voting) frivolously. It reminds me of what happened in France in the 2002 Presidential elections. There are two rounds in French Presidential elections, with the two top candidates in the first round going on to the second. In the first round there were a multitude of mad parties, and many students and leftists thought it would be fun to vote for various Trotskyist, Maoists and others, intending to revert to the official Socialist candidate in the second round  'We're such crazy people' they giggled in that surrealist way of theirs. But the leftist vote was so split that the two top candidates turned out to be Chirac, the Gaullist, and Le Pen, the leader of the far right National Front. So all those leftists then had to vote for  their arch-enemy, Chirac, to keep out Le Pen.
​  And here too people were using their referendum vote for all sorts of other reasons, losing sight of the central issue. Those ‘patriots’ have also probably voted for the break up of the United Kingdom as the Scots and Northern Irish voted to stay in the EU. Unintended consequences abound. There are lessons here both for voters and those who call referendums, especially referendums (yes, I know it should be 'referenda', but that sounds just too pretentious) that were never really necessary in the first place.
  
On a slightly brighter note, after voting on Thursday I took it in my head to go into town and buy a portion of the Canadian dollars I’ll need for my holiday in September, just in case Leave won. It turned out to be a good call. At least I've cut my losses to the tune of eighty Canadian dollars (and rising). So a little victory at least! It was not entirely for selfish reasons, because knowing my luck my buying my currency early will guarantee a huge increase in the pound by September. Or maybe not. 
 

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The real (and unmentioned) reason why there will be no Brexit

20/6/2016

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  Just four days to go before the referendum that will decide whether the UK stays in the EU and the two sides appear to be neck and neck. 'Too close to call' seems to be  the general consensus, except for those who think the Brexiters have momentum on their side. Some of the Remain camp are hoping that fear of the unknown will win the day for them, and may also be anticipating that the shocking murder of the MP Jo Cox will concentrate minds to their advantage, something the three day pause in campaigning (out of respect for her) may facilitate.
  My own view is that the Remain campaign will win, and by more than the narrowest of margins. I don't say that for the usual reasons - free movement, jobs, trade, etc, etc - but for another one that struck me when I heard something Nigel Farage, the UKIP (United Kingdom Independence Party) leader said a few days ago. Until now Mr Farage has liked to present himself as the politician most in tune with the ordinary man and woman, the one who knows how they feel on most issues (well, immigration anyway) in a way that neither aloof Tories nor campus-based Labour ideologues ever could. To a degree he seemed to have pulled it off, but then he went and said something that showed that on one issue he is totally out of touch with his target market. Commenting on predictions that the pound (as in £) would suffer a large decline in value in the wake of an exit vote, he was unconcerned. So what if the pound declines, he shrugged, it will help our exports.
  Oh dear, Nigel, in one sentence you showed that you are not so in touch after all. Don't you realise this is June? And what are a large number of ordinary men and women doing in June? Getting ready for their summer holidays, that's what. More to the point, the millions planning to go abroad are thinking about currency. Apparently they are not supposed to be bothered about having to spend up to 30% more for everything in Benidorm, Majorca, Rhodes et al. The economic and other arguments for leaving and remaining are finely balanced in many people's minds, a series of trade-offs involving sovereignty, trade, control of immigration and so on. Yet all of these are things that will not be experienced either way until some time in the future. This year's holidays are imminent. If you're not sure which way to jump, surely jumping the way that could cost a family £500 or more right now becomes less attractive. People will be looking at this month's bank balance, not imagining one in five or ten years' time.
  I don't know if David Cameron chose June for the referendum because he had worked out it was just before the summer holidays and he could point to the prospect of an immediate and probably sharp decline in the pound if the 'leave' side won. Probably not, but what a wealth of opportunities for conspiracy theorists this referendum has thrown up! If they lose, the more zany groups on the Brexit side will almost certainly be picking over the loss for evidence that they'd been robbed.  I fear that even the death of Jo Cox, a Remain martyr at just the 'right' time, will be seen as part of the conspiracy, if not now then before very long.
  So back to my prediction for next Thursday. I think that, given the number of don't knows, the Remain camp might just have scraped a win in the spirit of 'better the devil you know'. People may also have pause for thought about their jobs here and now rather than the ones promised at some time in the future after Britain is 'set free'. But what will really push the Remain camp to a clear victory are those currency exchange rate lists, be they online, at banks or at travel agents, because they are what millions are looking at right now while they work out just how much it costs to take a family to a theme park.


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    Paul Williams's (McEvoy Williams) Blog.  General stuff about History, Literature, family and Ipswich.

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